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When I see that the people holding the bag would be the people who bought the securities, and they’re about to be crammed down and in all the conversations are treated as an afterthought. How in an overall economy built on credit will the securitization mechanism continue, when the moral threat will be so high from on now.
The whole situation for Citi, Merrill yet others has to be much worse than letting on or Paulson would be stating its “contained”, only once it began to get to his financial friends, did subprime turn into a problem. BoE has not orchestrated a buyout of Northern Crock yet; it is looking increasingly likely they’ll rationalize it. AI do you have any thoughts in what prompted Moody’s change of language on MBIA? It seems that they just released an eval of MBIA in early October and ranked their capital more than 19% above their surplus requirement at that time (1.55x vs.
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Given the brief duration, it appears more likely that Moody’s is changing their rules rather than something changed with MBIA. If so, would it seem sensible for the guarantors to investigate hedging with something like Shiller’s housing futures? Under the second approach (the “stress case”), we are refining the stress-case simulation model described in Moody’s September 25, 2007 statements on the financial guarantors’ contact with mortgage risk within ABS CDOs.
And regarding to MBIA, additional evaluation of its direct RMBS profile leads Moody’s to trust the guarantor reaches greater risk of exhibiting a capital shortfall than previously communicated; we consider this somewhat likely now. 100,000 (or no matter the limit is) should maintain Treasuries, I suggest that people listen.
I’m just sayin’ but take it seriously. I wonder how much of the money entering the currency markets right now is appearing out of a set income? The yen has moved up, so a few of it is “hot” to carry money. If a great deal of it is from the set-income world, we are in deep then, deep doo-doo.
Sell your stocks now. James, I noticed the Moody’s press release earlier and noted it specifically described reconsideration of MBIA’s immediate RMBS profile along with new modeling assumptions. But I’m really interested in racking your brains on how Moody’s is specifically playing with the numbers. From stuff on MBIA’s website, I work out that as of Sept.
15 billion of total claims paying resources (and currently about 160 million/calendar years in operating income). Digging a less, most of MBIA’s “perfect” stuff is actually HELOCs and CES from originators like Countrywide. It seems to me MBIA and AMBAC are 2B2F. That would trigger massive downgrades of bonds, this means big losses throughout. It might be much cheaper for the nationwide country to avoid those deficits by salvaging MBIA and AMBAC. Several thoughts of Countrywide and the monolines. I recommend that while these businesses aren’t indispensable and for that reason 2B2F, the price necessary to bail them is much less than the expense of either not having them or replacing them.